FPC Briefing : India - China Relations and the Future of Af - Pak Chris

As instability from Afghanistan increasingly escalates into Pakistan, can improved India-China relations be a primer for security in the region? Acts of terrorism and destabilisation are now daily occurrences in Pakistan, against the country‟s population, army, police and intelligence services. Given Pakistan‟s political-military basis this appears to be a growing existential threat not only to the Pakistani state but also to the surrounding region notably India and China. As the situation in Pakistan escalates, and combines with Afghanistan into an Af-Pak conflagration, this threat then becomes a point of shared concern for India and China. In turn, if UK, US and NATO missions in Afghanistan are unsuccessful and ultimately result in withdrawal (and a cursory reading of their historical behaviour in the region suggests as much), then a regionally-led solution may be most apt. Critically, the proximity of Pakistan and Afghanistan make them permanent features on India‟s and China‟s strategic horizons, underscoring the need for a long term solution. Orchestrating a joint India-China approach to what is shared problem could stabilise their regional security and economic ties, garner international respect and facilitate their mutual rise in the international system.